In its monthly report published on Wednesday, OPEC lowered its expectations for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, just days after the decision by the alliance of oil-producing and exporting countries to postpone scheduled production increases until the second quarter of next year.
Today, OPEC revised its expectations for global oil demand growth to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024, down by 200,000 barrels per day from the previous estimate of 1.8 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects total global oil demand for the entirety of 2024 to reach 103.8 million barrels per day, with projections that average daily oil demand during the fourth quarter will hit 105.5 million barrels.
For next year, OPEC also reduced its expectations for global demand growth in 2025 to 1.4 million barrels per day, with estimates suggesting that the average total demand will be around 105.3 million barrels per day. The organization noted that demand growth will be supported by increased air travel and land mobility, alongside rising demand for diesel, and continued growth in industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Regarding global economic growth, OPEC maintained its forecast for 2024 at 3.1% and kept its 2025 forecast at 3.0%. Its expectations for major oil-consuming countries globally are as follows:
- **United States**: The organization slightly raised its GDP growth estimate, now expected to be 2.8% for 2024 and 2.2% for 2025.
- **Eurozone**: The organization’s growth forecast for the region remained unchanged, with an expected expansion of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.
- **China**: OPEC’s growth projections for the People's Republic remain at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025.
- **Russia**: OPEC kept its GDP growth forecast for Russia at 3.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.