Commerzbank expects movements in gold following a victory for Trump or Harris in the American elections.

Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, has presented his forecasts regarding gold price movements in light of the US presidential elections. The economic analyst believes that the price of the precious metal has somewhat retreated from its record level in the previous week, currently trading at around $2,740 per ounce.

Regarding the US elections, the commodities analyst noted that polls indicate a very close race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic counterpart Kamala Harris, although Trump’s lead in the betting markets has significantly decreased recently.

As a result, this could bolster gold prices, as inflation is likely to be higher under Trump than under Harris.

Additionally, a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidency would pose a threat to the independence of the US Federal Reserve, thus raising questions about this issue; which might make it difficult for the US Federal Reserve to respond to rising inflation with an appropriate monetary policy.

Therefore, Trump's victory is likely to lead to higher gold prices, whereas if Kamala Harris wins, gold may face downward pressure.

In any case, the outcome of the US presidential elections is expected to remain uncertain for days or even weeks, so gold is likely to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the results of the US elections.

As for the US Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, it is clear that the impact of the US elections has overshadowed gold movements compared to the circumstances of the Fed meeting. Therefore, there may not be a significant impact on gold prices.

Generally, a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is being priced in, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may support the possibility of continuing the rate-cutting cycle in the subsequent press conference following the announcement. The economic analyst does not expect any major surprises from the meeting.