Reuters survey: For these reasons, the Bank of Japan may postpone raising interest rates until next year.
In the latest opinion poll conducted by the American agency Reuters, economists' views indicate that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to a target of at least 0.50% by the end of March, but they predicted that the bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in its last meetings, which are taking place next week.
The key points from the Reuters survey regarding monetary policy moves by the Bank of Japan are:
- 51 out of 52 economists believe that interest rates will reach at least 0.5% by the end of March.
- 58% of economists believe that the Bank of Japan may keep the key interest rate at 0.25% in December's meeting, compared to 44% in the November survey.
- 94% of economists believe the tariffs that may be imposed by elected President Donald Trump will negatively impact Japan's economy to some extent.
- The average expectation indicates that the rate of wage increases in the spring labor negotiations for the next fiscal year may reach 4.7%, which is lower than the 5.1% recorded for the current fiscal year.
- While inflation and wage data show that the Japanese economy is developing as the Bank of Japan expected, the central bank is aware of risks abroad, which may prevent it from taking action during this meeting.
- If the Bank of Japan is to carefully consider future economic developments and political management decisions in the United States, it would be better to wait until the meeting in January next year to confirm the economic situation under the new U.S. administration.