Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting: We may need to raise interest rates if necessary.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting on Tuesday morning, emphasizing the need for the central bank to remain vigilant regarding rising inflation risks, indicating that monetary policy may need to remain restrictive.

The key points from the Australian Reserve's meeting minutes today include:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia did not see an urgent need to change interest rates.
• Nothing can be ruled out regarding future changes in the cash rate.
• The Reserve Bank's forecasts rely on the technical assumption that the cash rate will remain steady until mid-2025.
• The Reserve Bank considered factors that may warrant a future change in the cash rate or maintaining a fixed rate for a longer period.
• The Reserve Bank discussed scenarios where the central bank may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for a longer time or tighten it further.
• The supply gap may be wider than assumed, necessitating a more stringent monetary policy.
• Interest rates may need to rise if the Reserve Bank perceives that monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive.
• The Reserve Bank has a minimum tolerance for higher-than-expected inflation.
• The Reserve Bank will need more than one satisfactory quarterly inflation report to justify a reduction in interest rates.
• The Reserve Bank examined scenarios where a cut in interest rates might be justified, including weak consumption.
• A reduction in monetary policy may require a sharp decline in the labor market or future data.
• The Reserve Bank discussed risks arising from external factors, including U.S. economic policy and Chinese stimulus measures.
• Expectations regarding U.S. policy are uncertain, with some scenarios suggesting a significant decline in global growth and rising inflation.
• The Reserve Bank raised its expectations for China due to monetary stimulus, although the impact on Australia may be modest.