The Federal Reserve in New York issues inflation forecasts for one year and three years.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its economic projections regarding inflation and unemployment for the upcoming period as follows:

• Average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% (for one year) and around 2.8% for 5 years.
• Average inflation expectations for three years increased from 2.3% in July to 2.5%.
• Divergence in respondents' expectations regarding inflation widened across all three horizons.
• Uncertainty about inflation remained unchanged for one year and decreased for three and five-year horizons.
• Average expectations for median home price growth rose to 3.1% from 3.0%.
• Expected changes in prices over the next year (gasoline rises by 0.1% to 3.6%), (rent rises by 0.2% to 7.3%), (medical care rises by 0.4% to 8.0%), (food rises by 0.3% to 4.4%), (college education decreases by 1.3% to 5.9%).
• Labor market: Expected average wage growth over the next year increased to 2.9% from 2.7%, especially for households with an annual income below $50,000.
• Average unemployment expectations increased to 37.7% from 36.6%.
• Average probability of leaving a job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased to 19.1% from 20.7%.
• Average probability of finding a job if one were to lose their current job slightly decreased to 52.3%.
• Average expected growth in household spending increased by 0.1% to 5.0%.
• Probability of not paying the minimum debt in the next three months increased by 0.3% to 13.6% (highest since April 2020).
• Average expected tax change in the next year at current income levels decreased to 3.9%.
• Expected average growth in government debt decreased to 9.1% from 9.3%.
• Probability of interest rates rising on savings accounts in the next 12 months increased by 1.5% to 26.6%.
• Perceptions of current financial conditions deteriorated slightly; however, optimism remains higher than a year ago.
• Average probability of US stock prices rising in the next 12 months remained unchanged at 39.3%.

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